Just because tonight’s Eurovision final is a foregone conclusion and the Netherlands are going to win with a gazillion points (depending on who you believe), that doesn’t mean there aren’t some decent bets to be had in the various markets that always spring up around the contest. As usual, we’ve sifted through the pages of Oddschecker and the different betting sites to find a few punts that might be of interest.

Of course, if you don’t think Duncan Laurence is the winner tonight, his short odds mean there are more generous prices to be found for the other contenders – 8.5 for Australia (Unibet), 11.0 for Switzerland (Sportingbet), and so on. Those odds for Luca already make an each-way bet an interesting proposition, but if you think he’s going to do well but doesn’t have a real chance of winning, you might want to back him in the “Top 4” market instead (e.g. 2.1 at Sportingbet).

Alternatively, if you don’t like the unpredictability of the juries but you think you’ve got a handle on what televoters like, you could back Australia to win the televote (4.4 at Betfair), regardless of whether the juries go for “Zero Gravity” or not. That seems a plausible outcome given the running order and the chance that there’ll be a discrepancy between the public vote and the “expert” vote tonight.

At the other end of the scoreboard, you’ll struggle to get odds much longer than evens for Germany to finish in last place – 2.5 at Unibet is about as good as it gets. The other main candidates are seen as being San Marino (7.0 at Coral) and the UK (7.0 at Paddy Power), though the likes of Israel (15.0 at Sportingbet), Slovenia (21.0 at Sportingbet) and Belarus (34.0 at Unibet) have their appeal too. But you’ll feel a bit daft if it ends up being S!sters after all. You could, of course, just bet against the German girls in a head-to-head – for example, 1.62 (Skybet) says the UK will finish higher than Germany, while 3.0 (Bet365) is available if you think Germany will actually win that particular fight.

A screamingly obvious top five finish? (photo: eurovision.tv)

The position markets are generally interesting: Early-season favourite Russia has drifted all the way to 40+ in the winner market but, with friendly votes on his side, could still be worth a sniff in the “Top 5” market (2.0 at Unibet, so you’d double your money). Indeed, even if you buy into the narrative that it’s a Netherlands/Switzerland/Australia/Sweden carve-up for the top spots, someone else has to round off the top five. Azerbaijan at 2.28 and Italy at 2.74 are seen as next in line according to Betfair, but there’s good money to be made if you think you’ve spotted this year’s Michael Schulte equivalent among the supposed also-rans.

Similarly, the “Top 10” market allows for a bit of a punt. If the top few songs suck up a lot of the votes (think 2015, or even 2017 to an extent), that can open the door to a top ten finish without needing too many points. A strong jury vote could get Malta there despite them opening the show (3.75 on Unibet), while a strong televote from Spain in the pimp slot could do the same (4.33 on Bet365). Or you could go for longer odds – like Estonia, which might come across as a blessed slice of normality among all the craziness tonight. You can currently get 14.0 (Betfair) for Victor Crone to sneak into the top ten.

Group bets are a good option for betting on a relative outcome without having to decide where you think the country in question will land on the scoreboard. For example, even at short odds of 1.57 (Paddy Power), Sweden looks like value in the “Top Nordic” market – as even a hefty televote score for Iceland or Norway should be insufficient to outweigh the expected jury love for John Lundvik. The “Top Balkan” market (which includes Greece) is a more interesting proposition: Katerine Duska has the shortest odds there, but Nevena from Serbia could be similarly jury-friendly, plus she has a peach of a draw and some friendly televotes in the bag already – making odds of 6.0 (Bet365) for Serbia to top that category seem tempting.

“Top Big Five” is also interesting in light of the Bilal hype that has spread through the press centre during rehearsal week and the corresponding despair over the Italian styling choices. This is where laying on Betfair can come in handy: If, for example, you’re sceptical about Mahmood’s chances but you’re not sure whether France or Spain will be the main beneficiary, you can simply lay Italy (currently 1.76) and you’ll win your money as long as Italy isn’t the top scorer among the five automatic qualifiers, regardless of who else is.

Comment dire “hype” en français?

And the available bets just keep on getting more niche. For example, Bet365 have numerous markets dedicated to the number of 12-point awards the juries will read out tonight. They’ll give you odds of 1.83 if you think Australia will score douze more than 3.5 times (i.e. 4 times or more), which feels like a good deal unless you buy into that Netherlands whitewash. Meanwhile, you can bet on the UK and Ireland televote 12s at Paddy Power – there’s odds of 7.0 to be had if you think the Brits will fall for Kate Miller-Heidke’s depression on stilts act, which seems quite plausible in the absence of the usual UK televote sponges like Poland, Lithuania, Bulgaria and Ireland.

As always, our recommended guide to understanding the odds talked about above is the one by our much-missed friend and colleague Daniel at sofabet.com – we’ll be raising a glass to him tonight, and we hope you do too.

All odds correct at time of writing (1pm-ish on ESC day). They can and will change during the day, and indeed during the show itself, so keep your eyes peeled – and happy betting!