Just like for the semi-finals, the esc-chat.com team has compiled the individual predictions of its members. But this time we’ve done things a little differently!

Each of us has made a ranked prediction of the Top 10, followed by two unranked groups containing the 11th – 18th place and the 19th – 26th place. The countries that we consider likely to win are in bold.

The team result was calculated from the individual Top 10 rankings in ESC style (12, 10, 8, 7, … , 1 points).
In a tie, the number of votes within the same group (first 1-10, then 11-18, then 19-26) decided the higher place. When even that wasn’t enough to break a tie, the most 12 points was the deciding factor.

The bold countries in the team result indicate the countries that were considered a potential winner by more than one team member.

Individual commentaries by the team members can be found under the table!

Martin

I know I’m not exactly voicing a radical opinion here, but damn, this is a difficult year to predict. A lot of the bookmakers’ favourites have less favourable early draws, and it’s very hard to know what role the juries will play now that they have to give their full rankings. Nevertheless, I’m predicting Sweden as a kind of “compromise winner”, with the contemporary boy-pop of Hungary, Denmark and Greece also doing good business.

My gut instinct is that the Netherlands and Austria are so high in the betting right now because of “western” wishful thinking and that they’ll have a less impressive night on the scoreboard – but I may just be second-guessing myself there! – while the likes of Ukraine and Italy will underperform compared with their usual standard. As for last place, I just hope that doesn’t go to Valentina Monetta after the fairytale story of her qualification. Maybe the Albanian jury will come to the rescue!

Danny

Felix

This is a very open year. The last time we had such a tight contest was probably 1998 – and even then, the winner was probably clear in advance. It’s not that much this year, but will the history book on the shelf repeat itself? A tight contest, but in the end a winner who got all the advance publicity because of their look and back story? Could be. Austria has a strong song and delivers a remarkable performance, no matter how much the appearance of the singer is dividing the audience (and even the esc-chat.com team). But I don’t see “Rise Like A Phoenix” as the only contender, and not even as the strongest one. In the end, the trophy might as well go to the outstanding Netherlands, the goosebumps injecting Spain (mark my words), the praised United Kingdom or the captivating Hungary. However, the United Kingdom might as well end up much lower than many think and hope for.

I don’t see Armenia and Sweden as strong as some others do, instead I have the feeling that San Marino will have a minor impact on the scoreboard! For the last places, I see three Big 5 countries – France, Germany and (last) Italy.

That’s all I can really do for predictions, as it’s all very speculative. Each and every year, and especially this year – but we do it for the fun and the tradition. What else would you do on the highest holiday of the year!

Shi

Since I first became a Eurovision fan – 25 years ago, very scarily – I’ve always spent unhealthy amounts of time creating tables and making calculations and trying to guess the results. I don’t recall ever having such a hard time. It’s not to say I haven’t gotten my winner’s prediction wrong before – I did, more than once. But I still went into the final having a strong sense of what I think was going to win.

This time, however. I can make a pretty convincing case to a good number of songs to win this, and other people have been able to make convincing (and sometimes terrifying, if it’s a result I really don’t want to happen) for other songs to win. And if that wasn’t confusing enough, apart from a few songs which I am certain will end up in the top 10 or the bottom 5, I feel that the other songs can finish almost everywhere.

When thinking about the possible top 10, I tried to take into consideration my own reactions to performances we’ve already seen as well as reports from the ones we are yet to discover. I tried to pay attention to other opinions and odds, but with more than a pinch of salt — I learned, sometimes the hard way, that I should trust my gut, and a little too often I find myself influence by the opinions around me.

I tried to keep some mix of different styles in the top 10, and different types of performances, as well as songs that appeal to specific regions of Europe and that I think have a cross appeal. As much as I tried, I did end up with a pretty ballad heavy semi, which I am excusing myself with feeling that the uptempos left for the most part aren’t strong enough (and the ones that are suffered some – well – unfortunate placements in the running order). My top 10 wanted to have more than countries in it, so some things had to be left out, most notably Greece which I have slotted for 11th – high enough to have gained from being a pretty modern track that works the audience well and low enough to suffer from sounding and looking messier than it could have been.

I picked the winner – maybe unfairly – based on the one performance that was the absolute stand out for me. It’s a song I like but that wasn’t ever in my top 5 throughout the season. It stands out by truly being about a song, with a smart, innovative, different and well-thought performance that brings it across to the European living rooms.

As for the rest of my prediction – this year is so open that I probably have a similar chance to be pretty damn on or totally off. If I was a betting person, I’d bet on the latter, though.