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Eurovision 2012 – Our voting analysis

by | Jun 12, 2012 | 2012 ESC General, Uncategorized

Eurovision 2012 – Our voting analysis

by | Jun 12, 2012 | 2012 ESC General, Uncategorized

So a few weeks have passed since Sweden won the 57th Eurovision Song Contest with the song “Euphoria”, and Loreen has gone on to enjoy a big pan-European hit with the track – something that can only be seen as great news for ESC generally.

While we’re waiting for the EBU to finally publish the jury/televote split, however, let’s take a quick look back at some of the other results that stood out to us!

The Big 5
Three of the big 5 countries reached the top 10 this year, making it the best outcome for the big 5 since 2001 (when it was still the big 4, and Germany, Spain and France all placed in the top 10 – with only poor Lindsay Dracass missing out). However, the other big 5 members, France and the United Kingdom, both ended the night with a bottom 5 placing.

Don’t judge a song’s chances by its style
Even before Loreen won, we knew that musical style is no indicator for a song’s chances at Eurovision. After all, Lordi won it with heavy metal (albeit with a schlager twist), and there wasn’t much precedence for Kate Nash-influenced girlpop before Lena. And now we have seen that these were not exceptions: Any style can win Eurovision, as long as the underlying composition is strong enough – and, of course, as long as the performance is right.

Their best result ever
could be boasted in particular by Albania, who came 5th in the final, topping the previous high recorded by Anjeza Shahini on the country’s debut in 2004. “Suus” even finished 2nd in its semi-final, only 6 points behind winner Russia. Meanwhile, San Marino came home with their best position, with Valentina Monetta social networking her way to 14th in the first semi-final.

Their best result for a long time
was enjoyed by Spain, of course, who came 10th for the first time since 2004. Meanwhile, Lithuania (14th) posted their best result since 2006 (6th) and, indeed, their third-best result in their ESC history.

Their worst result ever
was most notably recorded by Georgia, who missed the final for the very first time since the country’s debut in 2007.

Their worst result for a long time
was suffered by Bosnia & Herzegovina (18th), their lowest placing since 1997 (also 18th), and Greece (17th), which represents their worst result since Mando achieved the same placing in 2003.

Friendly voting
is less predictable than many think. Analysing the ex-Yugoslav nations, for example, one sees that Macedonia made it to the final for the first time since 2007, while Croatia hasn’t been in the final since 2009 (and last reached the top 10 back in 2001). Serbia returned to the top 10 after a three-year absence, but their results have been inconsistent in recent years – while Slovenia resumed its typical “friendless” role within the region following last year’s comparative success.

Among the other “infamous” countries and regions, Norway finished last in the final with Iceland and Denmark also underperforming, while Ukraine (15th) suffered their worst result since 2005 – and for all the Russian grannies placed 2nd in Baku, the country had to bounce back from its worst result in “modern” times with Alex Sparrow last year (16th). Accordingly, we can come to the conclusion that there is obviously a moderate advantage for countries with friends, neighbours or healthy diasporas, but this by no means guarantees a successful result – and the better songs and singers from a region will often divert all the votes away from their local competitors.

The draw
is not particularly relevant, particularly now that the juries have returned. In 2012, positions 1-5 achieved a total of 302 points, 6-10: 492 points, 11-15: 369 points, 16-20 (including the winner’s 372 points): 755 points, and 21-26: 518 points.

For comparison, last year’s figures: 1-5: 432 points, 6-10: 545 points, 11-15: 487 points, 16-20 (including the winer’s 221 points): 565 points, and 21-25: 465 points.

The bookies are getting better
or maybe ESC is just becoming more predictable. Sweden and Russia were the bookmakers’ favourites for the victory throughout the season, with Serbia not too far behind, and this was accurately reflected on the Saturday night scoreboard. Similarly, the vast majority of the qualifiers from the semi-finals were precisely the ones deemed most likely to qualify by the betting agents and gamblers alike. Often the best value was to be found where long-standing expectations were turned on their head, such as the aforementioned Greek failure to reach the top 10 for the first time in the “semi-final era”. Either way, the mainstream markets appear to be getting easier to read – other than the momentum behind Amaury Vassili last year, very few of the big favourites have truly underperformed recently – so experienced punters might need to look at the more niche markets to make real profits in future.

And now all that remains
is to wait for the publication of the jury/televote breakdown, which will no doubt make for fascinating reading. When that’s ready, we will of course be analysing it in detail too. So watch this space!

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