Tonight sees the Grand Final of the Eurovision Song Contest 2016. It’s time to go through some possible scenarios, to speculate how certain possible victories would affect Eurovision in the one or other way, and finally to give you a personal voting recommendation.

Note: This post reflects the opinion and thoughts of just myself personally, it doesn’t represent the thoughts of my team colleagues.

So let me jump into speculations and ask myself..

What if…

…Sweden wins
It’s the worst thing that can happen to Eurovision as we knew and loved it. It’s not unlikely that SVT will want to abolish live backing vocals, and replace them by prerecorded vocals. Looking at how much they Melodifestivalized the Eurovision final already, it wouldn’t surprise me if they go all the way and get rid of the spokespersons altogether, as the reduction to “12 points only” already indicates a negative attitude towards them. The contest would more and more turn into a Swedish thing, not a European thing. Sure, “If I Were Sorry” might become a minor chart success across Europe. But another Swedish victory could well mean that in the future, half of the Eurovision songs are Swedish ones, and not songs from the actual countries. This is a development that needs to be stopped. Don’t vote for Sweden. You don’t want to go back to Sweden next year again either, do you?

…Russia wins
It’s not the worst thing that can happen to Eurovision, but it would be bad for two reasons: First, a lot of fans will want to stay away from the contest next year. Second, it adds wind to the sails of those who keep saying that it’s all about politics at Eurovision. The song probably wouldn’t become a hit in Western Europe, as it’s too Eurovision, too 10 years ago.

…Ukraine wins
It would for sure be the weirdest option for a winning song. I belong to the crowd who loves this entry, for being so odd, artistic and haunting. However, just like Russia, it would make the “all politics!” crowd louder again, and it definitely wouldn’t become a Europe-wide hit either. However, it would be a big boost for Eurovision at a creative level, and should show everyone that Eurovision can very well be non-mainstream.

…Australia wins
I have mixed emotions about a potential Australian win. The song would deserve it a lot, but I can already hear people complaining that Australia isn’t in Europe. However, Dami Im winning would be the best thing that could happen in terms of putting an end to speculation that racism might play a role in the voting. The song has a big potential to become a huge hit in many countries, more than any other of my potential winners here.

…Austria wins
This is the best potential victory that can happen, though probably not for ORF. Hosting two contests with only a one-year break wouldn’t make Austria’s national broadcaster very happy. However, it would be the best thing that can happen to Eurovision, because it’d be a surprise winner, and a loved one too, by many fans. Surprise winners keep the contest interesting. How boring would Eurovision become if we always knew the winners already in advance, just by looking at the best odds, fan poll results, most downloads and YouTube views? “Loin d’ici” would definitely deserve victory as a song too, and a winner in a non-English language would make Eurovision more European, at a time where it seems to drift far away from its European, international, traditional spirit.

Vote for Austria.

The surprise winner? | © Thomas Hanses (EBU)