Well, well, what do you know. While – like most of us – I always thought we had more than ten realistic choices for possible qualifiers here, meaning some favorites would stay out of the final, even I didn’t really predict this particular combination of countries. I suggest filing semi-final one of ESC 2018 under “useful arguments to pull out when people talk about countries with friends and countries that ‘always’ qualify”.

Which is a good memo for myself as well, because when I was struggling with who to leave in or out, after marking everyone I thought was surely in the final, I definitely used the “who has more support in this semi?” method to decide. I had no post-performance prediction, though: not only did I watch the semi at the office where I had to actually do things once in a while (curse you, timezones!), I also had to step out between Austria and Switzerland. And I spent the remainder of my time being a total geek and doing all kind of trends and social media live reaction measurements, because I decided months ago I would use this Eurovision as a scientific case study and I am a huge numbers nerd, so of course I am going to stay true to that particular principle.

Anyhow, we had 19 performances to reflect on for the first time, and I have tried to rewatch all of them again now that I can also look at some things in retrospective.

Azerbaijan was actually one of the countries I always expected would qualify. Not so much because of their track record, but because the entry just felt so Eurovision-friendly. A likable singer, a pleasant tune, staging that was just gimmicky enough but not over the top. But looking back at it, it does make you think that when you have strong competition, it’s not enough to just be nice on all fronts, and for every element of this song and performance there was someone in this semi that did it bigger, flashier and/or better.

I really do hope that Iceland’s Ari will decide to come back some day with a better song. As far as I could tell he had a very positive experience, despite or even because of the low expectations of him. But he is so talented and so likable that I’m sure he can do much better for his country if he has something to work with. He also provided proof that I’m not entirely heartless, as I totally teared up myself just as he did the same at the end of his performance.

Albania is one of the entries I’ve been wrong about and was actually happy to be wrong about, despite never really connecting with the song. I do appreciate Eugent tremendously as a singer and a performer – I suspect the juries agreed – and he definitely owns the screen. I still feel the song and staging aren’t enough to make much of a dent in Saturday’s scoreboard, but I’m very pleased for him to even be there.

Sennek from Belgium was better than I expected but still came across as a mismatch of song and singer, and that staging did nothing to sell the atmosphere of the song. The fact that she did have it in her to sing it very well and with so much emotion does make me wonder what would have happened if they had chosen a more intimate approach for the staging.

How lovely is it to see a delegation like the Czech Republic celebrate? With their short and unimpressive experience in Eurovision to date, I doubt that even coming in as relative favorites made them very sure of themselves, and then they also went through the most stressful week possible, even if you couldn’t really know that from the performance. Indeed, you couldn’t even know you weren’t seeing it in its original version. While “Lie To Me” is still not for everyone – if I had to guess, I’d say that the majority of the voters for this were girls under the age of 21 – it was extremely effective on screen and very much felt like it belonged to 2018.

Another one that I guessed wrong and was delighted to be wrong about was Lithuania. This was always a mood song for me – in the right moments it took me in and in other moments it was so subdued I couldn’t be bothered with it. But in the right moments I loved it and, as much as I was afraid that it would get lost where it was – early and between two big stage numbers – as soon as my sister, my own private voting barometer who actually hadn’t seen this song yet this year, texted me to say it was wonderful. I knew it’d make it after all.

I have such an over-saturation with Israel’s “Toy” that I can barely judge it, but as I initially thought from the rehearsals, I really do like how it looks on stage and it doesn’t look like any other entry. However, it would be really nice if they got those vocals together, and hopefully having a bit of time to rest with some of the pressure off will help them to regroup and focus on thinking about how to make it sound better. With a group of talented singers and musicians there should be a way to improve this, and if nerves are causing some of the problem, maybe it’s a good time to try some meditating. I heard Ieva has a few tips.

Aw, Belarus. I hadn’t managed to watch it all the way through because it was way too much for all my senses, and I felt self-conscious enough about Eurovision displaying on one of my work computer monitors as it is. Cringe galore by a sympathetic singer who never had enough of a song to rescue it and yet still picked the worst way possible to display it. I imagine some voters were entertained enough to send something his way, but otherwise, nothing to see here.

I am obviously very biased about Estonia at this point, because it has never worked for me (and not just because of the genre), but I do think that my initial feeling from the rehearsals was fairly accurate – namely that the oversized scale of the presentation takes away whatever connection Elina had to offer to the audience. A beautiful woman with a beautiful voice and a beautiful dress, all enough to make the required impact for qualification, but not enough of a hook – musically or emotionally – for people to really care about it.

To the credit of Bulgaria, “Bones” came together better than all its different pieces made me feel (and that had made me decide to leave it out of my qualifier prediction prior to the semi performance). Since I always liked the basic song, it was nice to hear it connecting fairly well. The camerawork made more sense as a three-minute stretch than in the short clips we’d had previously, but Equinox still have the charisma of one person spread across the five of them.

Nothing was going to save Macedonia or make it less painful to watch, for all I like the song. Add it to the list of “songs I love to hear in studio and pretend their live performance never happened” and let’s move on…

Having seen Franka in rehearsals, I was so sure Croatia would be the jury fodder of this semi that despite my own complaints about never remembering the entry exists, I still put her through in my final guess. Perhaps I was worried about it being just me who didn’t seem to get it. Looks like I wasn’t the only one who forgot the song exists after all. Sorry, Franka, I tried!

Austria has been a personal favorite of mine since when the song was revealed, and while I hadn’t been especially convinced by what we’d seen from the performance so far, the engineering project they brought with them actually provided for a nice distraction from the stage without actually hiding it, and there was something in Cesár’s awkward audience interaction that actually worked well with the overall warmth of the song. I’m still not entirely sure it can do much beyond that in the final, but I am not going to argue when my big favorites make it through!

I love Greek music. I love the Greek language. I even managed to love “Oniro mou” despite it being more a track from a world music compilation than a well-structured song. After wrestling all week with trying to figure out what the point of their staging was, I ended up understanding it entirely with all its little touches, clever ideas and intricate layers. What the entry from Greece was ultimately missing was a performer. One charismatic enough to own that stage with all its epic elements on her own and one who could sing the song beautifully. Yianna was neither, and that meant every one of the initial flaws of the song was left exposed.

I really thought Finland was in trouble looking at rehearsals throughout the week, and I still dislike pretty much everything about this staging, although it did come across as cohesive even if purposeless. But like Poli Genova before her (plus good vocals), Saara gave a short and effective lesson in the importance of star quality.

Armenia was the last addition to my prediction after I’d ignored it all season, and I really should know better than not trusting my initial gut feelings. But you know, I started doing math in my brain of “he sings it well and it’s a ballad and it’s an eastern-oriented semi and there can be enough jury votes to get it in, because Armenia has had to be really bad to fail to qualify before”. I am afraid that like many countries before them, this will make them jump to the wrong conclusions and not send songs that represent their own culture, instead of realizing that what they need is to send them with a more relatable artist.

Switzerland next, and the Swiss Family ZiBBZ were exactly what they have been at every point between being chosen and now: competent, professional, pleasant, enjoyable, and completely forgotten as soon as their song ended.

I was too quick to praise the camerawork for Ireland, as in its full version it was less impressive than I initially thought, but it still was lovely overall and worked really well in this position. Hopefully the second half draw can help them work reasonably well in the final too, because beyond this being a lovely track, I always enjoy seeing delegations not giving up, trying different things (even if not musically – the song itself is as Irish as it could get) and realizing that there is always a way to get it right. You just need to try hard enough, and have a decent product to begin with.

And finally, Cyprus. Where do I start? Maybe at the beginning, over a decade ago, when I was first introduced to Eleni Foureira as part of a girl group, prior to her solo career. I always liked her as a person for her endless positivity, and I always enjoyed her songs for the unpretentious fun they were. I actually have many tracks from her (the girl group included) on my mp3 player still, because they are perfect to dance around to. I also have watched many of her performances, so I’m familiar with her style and I know she is a fantastic dancer who worked very hard to become one, and yet she was responsible for one moment last night that made me cringe more than anything in the Belarus performance.

Here’s the thing. “Fuego” is fun, sure. I’ve enjoyed it for the easy listening nothingness that it is ever since it was picked. As a track, it’s probably one of the weaker ethnopop songs we’ve had melodically, albeit with a much better production. But all in all, much of its initial appeal was its nostalgic value for those who watched Eurovision ten years ago. Even so, as a song, it didn’t particularly set the polls, reactions or odds on – sorry – fire.

It’s true that there are often songs we don’t really notice that suddenly reveal themselves come Eurovision thanks to a brilliant staging or performance. But this is where my problems lie. Considering how basic the song is, with the lyrics being pretty meaningless (ah yeah ah yeah fire!) and the staging not really relating to the specific song, you could basically take any other track Foureira has ever recorded, stick that performance onto it, put it onto that stage, with those clothes, and it would be equally effective.

There’s nothing wrong with that, it should be said, and I always thought – and still do – that Cyprus should make the final, because we all need our ridiculous cheap fun. It’s Eurovision, after all. But let me put this out there: while Eleni definitely conquers with her screen presence and the camerawork makes the most out of it, the choreography of this is not exactly innovative or original, and is based mostly on wearing very few clothes while making as many sexual and sensual moves as possible and generally being entirely tacky and classless. Again, so far, fine. There’s room for everything, there’s an audience for everything, and the final line-up needs some variety.

But seeing it rock to the top of the odds, and seeing the fan reaction or social media reaction of people thinking this would make a great winner, makes me so incredibly uncomfortable. For me and for many other women and girls out there, the takeaway message from last night’s show is that the moment getting the strongest reaction from the audience is when five attractive women stand on stage and spread their legs. A song doesn’t necessarily need to have a message, but this one does, even if it didn’t intend to. Be hot. Take your clothes off. Make men want to sleep with you because that’s sexy. Flick your pretty hair around, smile to the camera, shake your boobs and your ass. A song? Vocal talent that’s more than just passable? In a song contest? That’s only for ugly girls, sorry. Tough luck, ladies, you need to work harder.

I don’t expect the audience to give a damn about this, although I expect (or at least hope) the juries might. I imagine many of the people reading this will roll their eyes at me and ask why I can’t just relax and enjoy some harmless fun for a little bit. But that’s the thing. I don’t think it’s harmless. I think it’s degrading and offensive, and even if it’s definitely not the worst competitor this year, it’s definitely the worst possible winner. I think we forget how wide the reach of this competition is beyond our bubble, and it pains me to think that this is the message to come out of it. I’d love Cyprus to win, I really would – but not with this, and not with this performance.